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Please let us know if you agree. The blue lines correspond to the forecasts computed by different high-resolution weather models. Also shown are the members of a traditional ensemble prediction, where the same weather model GFS is run several times with slightly different initial conditions, to reflect uncertainties in the observations required to run a forecast model. The GFS members have been downscaled and bias corrected to match local weather conditions, data from the high-resolution models is untouched.
A traditional ensemble e. GFS computed with the same forecast model often underestimates the uncertainties in the weather for the first 3 to 5 days thus overestimating the confidence in the forecast. Furthermore, the traditional ensemble is run at much lower resolution, thus neglecting some of the local weather phenomenon, which can be seen in high resolution models.
It is very important to note, that all members of a traditional ensemble have the same likelihood of being true there is no way to tell in advance which one will be better. This contrasts with the high-resolution models, where some deliver better forecasts than others depending on the location and weather conditions.
Weather models simulate physical processes. A weather model divides the world or a region into small “grid-cells”. Each cell is about 4km to 40km wide and m to 2km high. Our models contain 60 atmospheric layers and reach deep into the stratosphere at hPa 60km altitude.
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